Pure binary signal backtest — April 2015 to present. BUY = enter 100% BTC. EXIT = exit to 100% cash. All other signals ignored. 569 weeks, $1,000 starting capital.
$1,000 initial capital deployed on 2015-04-05 at $259.74 (BUY signal week close). Both strategies start from the same price. HODL holds BTC continuously; BUY/EXIT exits on EXIT signal and re-enters on BUY.
Figure 1. Portfolio value, log scale, weekly resolution. Entry: 2015-04-05 @ $259.74. Orange = BUY/EXIT. Blue = HODL.
Peak-to-trough portfolio decline. BUY/EXIT strategy shows flat zero drawdown during cash periods — 2018 and 2022 bear markets avoided entirely. Maximum drawdown of −54.7% occurs within bull cycles.
Figure 2. Drawdown from portfolio peak. Orange fill = BUY/EXIT. Blue = HODL. Flat zero = cash period.
Head-to-head comparison. Both strategies start from $1,000 on 2015-04-05 at $259.74. BUY/EXIT outperforms by avoiding the 2018 and 2022 bear markets while compounding the full bull cycle gains.
| Metric | BUY/EXIT Strategy | HODL | Delta |
|---|
Complete trade log. 3 full cycles completed. Currently in cash since October 2025 EXIT at $114,788.
| Cycle | Date | Signal | BTC Price | Portfolio | Cycle Return |
|---|
Annual return comparison. Bear years 2018 and 2022: strategy returned 0% in cash while HODL lost −76% and −64% respectively. 2017 and 2025 cycles show outsized compounding effect.
Figure 3. Annual returns capped at +1500% for readability. Hover for actual values.
Binary allocation — 100% BTC or 100% cash. Three holding periods: 2015–2017, 2019–2021, 2022–2025.
Figure 4. BTC position as share of portfolio. 100% = fully invested, 0% = fully in cash.